Reliable sources indicate that the present target date for elections is November this year.

The same sources say that they were originally scheduled for this month, but a number of factors caused the postponement to November. Amongst the factors causing postponement was the lack-lustre reception of the people to the Barisan Nasional's campaigning, in particular, the campaigning by the Prime Minister. Other factors include the performance or rather, non-performance, of the stock market -- although the BN has already accumulated its war chest a few months back -- as well as the arsenic issue.

In fact, reception to the BN's campaigning has been so lack-lustre than well-informed sources say the BN is now only confident of sweeping two states. Hence, the felt need for another 'swing' through the country.

As for Kelantan, despite Tengku Razaleigh's brave words, our sources suggest that the BN is seriously considering whether to "write-off" Kelantan as a lost cause and concentrate on Terengganu, for fear that devotion of too many resources to Kelantan might result in a loss of Terengganu as well. Indeed, an analysis of the 1995 results show that even Tengku Razaleigh's seat may not be secure, and the more he attacks Kelantan MB Nik Aziz, the less secure it will be.

It is now realised, a little too late, that there have been so many mistakes in the campaign approach that some well-placed persons are beginning to wonder whether the BN's public relations consultant -- a well-known local firm this time, no longer Saatchi and Saatchi as in 1990 -- is not actually in the pay of the Barisan Alternatif. However, this is likely competitors' talk in an attempt to get a piece of the cake. The Barisan Alternatif cannot afford to "buy off" anyone. Working on a shoe-string budget, all its workers are purely volunteers working for free.

Still, the BN media persist, most notably in their attempts to downplay the arsenic issue, with the latest 'coup' being to obtain results from a UKM lecturer to the effect that all the normal people -- twelve of them -- that he tested had elevated levels of arsenic in their urine. If this is true, then they have managed to downplay Anwar's arsenic levels only to suggest that the whole country may be suffering from arsenic contamination and pollution! Would you vote for a party that has overseen the arsenic poisoning of the population and did not even know about it?

In another recent twist -- having attempted but largely failed to swing a significant proportion of the Chinese vote to the BN -- UMNO and the BN are turning to what they believe to be the "tried-and-true" tactic of fanning racial antagonisms. First, they floated the suggestion of a Chinese deputy prime minister, falsely attributing it to the 17-point electoral demands. Now, they are busy suggesting that the National Mosque was defiled by the presence of non-Muslims.

Fortunately, this is NOT 1969 -- the people have grown and matured, even if the BN remains the same spoilt brat that will do anything to get its way.

Ong Ka Ting's vaccine

The MCA's Ong Ka Ting, who is also deputy home affairs minister, wishes to inject a vaccine against demonstrations which he labels an infectious disease.

Being from the MCA, Ong Ka Ting should watch what he says about diseases and vaccines otherwise he will remind people once again of how his colleague from the MCA injected people and pigs with the JE vaccine and as a result caused the Nipah virus to spread, killing more than 100 persons, making thousands destitute, and leaving many orphans.

Like the good doctor will tell him, before recommending a course of action, he should first diagnose the real disease and the real cause.

His health minister colleague failed to do so and now the MCA wishes to cover it all up by making fools of themselves. They continue to call the outbreak JE, and their committee a JE victims committee, when the whole world knows it was not JE, had nothing to do with JE, and cannot be dealt with as if it were JE. If anyone wants proof of the BN's and the MCA's incompetence and stupidity, they need go no further than drive over to the MPPJ and take a look at the signboard opposite it which says that Nipah is spread by culex mosquito!

Being the deputy home affairs minister, a person with some power and authority, Ong Ka Ting should realise that demonstrations are first of all a democratic right. Secondly, he should also realise that demonstrations occur when people have no other accessible means of making their voice heard. The people would like to gather in Bt Jalil stadium, but they are given the round-around on permits and rentals; they would much prefer to sit down and arrange a place, time and route (if applicable) with the police, but no cooperation is forthcoming from the authorities.

Finally, if Ong Ka Ting thinks the right vaccine is tear gas and acid water, truncheons and arrests, then, as in the case of the JE that was really a Nipah, the application of the vaccine will only spread the disease.

Foreign investments outflow because of demonstrations?

Gerakan's Dr Kang Chin Sing should concentrate on trying to unseat Dr Koh Tsu Koon; but perhaps he's making tracks for a move to KL, hence his foray into trying to make an intelligent comment on KeADILan's politics.

Labelling KeADILan's politics as "street politics", unlike "normal" party politics, he suggested that demonstrations will only cause the people to appreciate stability, citing the example of East Timor. He also suggested that foreign investments might leave the country because of such demonstrations.

The Malaysian has news for him. The instability in East Timor, as everyone who follows the news knows, is not caused by the people. It is caused by the authorities who wanted to deny the people the right to their freedom and independence. The people came out peacefully to vote, and they voted overwhelming for independence. But the authorities refused to recognise their vote. Such behaviour, however, is not foreign to the BN, being the spoilt brats who cannot take 'No' for an answer!

The Malaysian also has news for him regarding the outflow of portfolio investments. Between July 16 and September 1 this year, there were no demonstrations to talk of. Yet, according to Bank Negara and the NEAC, almost RM2 billion flowed out of the country. Then, between September 1 and September 8, another billion left. Finally, from September 8 to September 15, yet another billion flowed out, leaving the net inflow for this year a miserable RM675 million.

Meanwhile, long-term foreign direct investments are down as well, quite a bit down from last year, and down as compared to some neighbouring countries.

So, who's the cause of the outflow? The BN or the Barisan Alternatif?

Finally, as for instability, let's face it. We know what caused the instability, and how to restore it. Up until September 2 1998, the country was quite, quite stable. We all know what happened on September 2 and what a fumble the attempt to charge Anwar Ibrahim turned out to be. Where a simple cabinet reshuffle would have done the trick, the "normal" party politics of the BN instead sought to attempt to politically (and possibly physically) destroy Anwar Ibrahim. This has been the fundamental cause of instability in the country. Even amongst people who were prepared to accept that Anwar Ibrahim may really be guilty of Dr Mahathir's charges, the trial was seen to be ludicrous and absurd, the amendment on the charges was ridiculous and smacked of persecution, and the witnesses without much credibility.

For stability to return, all that is required is to put the BN in its place and vote in the Barisan Alternatif. Investors do not like uncertainty, and that is precisely what they are faced with -- uncertainty about the present government and its policies, its silly statements and flip-flops, uncertainty over the direction of policy, misgivings over cronyism especially in the bank mergers, and so on. A Barisan Alternatif government may not be what they want, but they will feel sufficiently comfortable with it as it will definitely not only provide stability but also a coherent policy framework for the opening decade of the next millenium.